Attribution Is Broken: What CPG Marketers Need to Know

Let’s be honest: last-touch attribution is broken.

And even more sophisticated models like multi-touch attribution?

Still flawed.

Especially if you're a CPG brand running campaigns across multiple media channels.

Why last-touch attribution fails

Last-touch attribution gives all the credit to the final interaction a consumer had before converting. That usually means paid search, paid social, or retargeting gets the glory.

But here’s the problem:

Those channels didn’t create the intent. They just captured it.

If someone Googles your brand and clicks a search ad, that moment was likely shaped by everything they saw before that: a billboard, a podcast read, an in-store display, a connected TV spot. But none of those get credit.

Multi-touch isn’t the silver bullet either

Sure, multi-touch attribution (MTA) tries to assign value across a sequence of touchpoints, but it still leans heavily on digital signals.

It can’t effectively account for:

• Out-of-home

• Cable TV

• Streaming audio

• Product sampling

• Word of mouth

And that means you’re still undervaluing the channels that drive awareness and influence consideration.

So what should you do?

Start by choosing measurement strategies that reflect how people actually buy.

Two methods worth leaning into:

• Sales lift studies: These measure actual revenue outcomes before and after a campaign. They don’t assign credit to individual channels, but they show whether the media investment moved the needle overall.

• Target vs. holdout testing: By running campaigns in select markets and comparing them to untouched control regions, you get a clear sense of incremental lift.

We also believe in bringing in third-party attribution partners to help validate results.

Why?

Because we don’t believe in grading our own homework.

Too often, we hear from CPG brands who feel like their agency tells one story about performance, while the sales numbers tell another.

Independent measurement helps build trust, accountability, and more accurate insights. It’s not just a best practice—it’s essential.

Know what your attribution model can and can’t see

Attribution should inform your media strategy, not mislead it.

Before you build a plan, ask:

• What channels will be measurable under this attribution model?

• Which ones won’t?

• What’s our backup plan for measuring non-clickable media?

If you don’t ask these questions upfront, you risk pulling budget from high-performing channels just because they’re harder to track.

Final thoughts: Measure what matters

As CPG marketers, we need to think beyond clicks and conversions. Our job is to build brands, drive velocity, and create long-term growth, not just chase short-term attribution wins.

That means building media plans that reflect how people actually engage with brands. And that means choosing measurement tools that don’t leave half your funnel in the dark.

Want a smarter attribution strategy that reflects the real world? Let's chat!

We help CPG brands plan across channels, work with trusted third-party measurement partners, and measure what really matters.